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- The 30/30/40 rule is a theory in League of Legends that says 30% of your matches are wins, 30% are losses, and 40% are decided by your own skill.
- The rule may not be fully accurate, but it helps players focus on what they can control and avoid wasting time on unwinnable games.
- There is also a theory that Riot assigns players to lower-skilled teammates if they perform well, making it harder for them to climb the ranked ladder.
If you primarily queue up solo, you must have thought at one point or another: “Is the matchmaking working against me?” After all, it seems like every single match puts a baboon piloting a computer for the first time in its life in your team, whereas the enemy gets a Korean smurf walking over your entire team.
A lot of the time, the issue is exaggerated, but it’s true that soloq matchmaking works against you in a plethora of ways!
The Golden Ratio
While the origin isn’t clear, the League of Legends community has largely accepted the 30/30/40 (or sometimes 40/40/20) rule of matches that was originally proposed by Trevorius in a now-deleted YouTube video. This goes against Riot‘s claim of 50% +/-1%.
The rule goes like this: 30% of all your matches are in your favor, where you’d win even if you play poorly. 30% of them are matches that are pretty much unwinnable, even if you clutch. The remaining 40% are games decided entirely by your own skill.
Explaining The Rule
Throwing out words like unwinnable and fair games is easy, but what exactly are the criteria? It differs between people, but the gist is this:
- Unlosable games: These are games where there’s either a troll in the enemy team or someone has disconnected or gone AFK. Games with a rank mismatch and your team’s higher than the enemy team also come here. Lastly, having an enemy that’s tilted or a game where a lane snowballs pretty heavily can also be called an unlosable game.
- Unwinnable games: No matter how good you play individually, the chances of winning are extremely low. These can be called unwinnable games. These are games where someone AFK or disconnected in your team, the enemy team has higher ranks, or an enemy lane has snowballed tremendously and can now 1v5. You can still win these games, but it’d take a miracle rather than your own skills.
- Fair Matches: Remember that no match is ever truly fair; there is still bias, just not extreme enough to cause an issue. These are matches where there isn’t anyone trolling or AFK. The average rank of the two teams is similar, and the average recent win rate is as well. Playing your best can be the difference your team needs in these matches to win.
Is It Really Accurate?
Well, not really. Reddit user Nusensei did a test on 100 games, and they got a result similar to 20/20/60, showing that they were in control of most of their games. This also fits in with the surf accounts of pros still having around an 80% winrate at most, despite being good enough to win 1v9.
There are certain nuances like rank and what server you play in, but in the end, it doesn’t matter how accurate it is. The rule’s main purpose is not to hyper-analyze games but to explain what kind of mentality you need to rank up in solo.
The thing to learn is that instead of putting in all your brain juices trying to win a game with 2 AFKs, it’s better to chill out and play normally. This doesn’t mean you give up. Rather, you should save your mental fortitude for where it matters instead of spending it all prematurely.
Further Factors
Players commonly accept that their own performance also affects the kind of players they get matched with. If you play better than your current rank, the system may put those who play below the rank’s level in your team. This may also explain why smurfs still only have 80% winrates.
Thousands of tests and accounts of players getting matched with better players exist. For example, user 00Spartacus got matched against diamond players on his 11th match after a winning streak, despite the previous matches being against silvers and platinums.
Riot has denied any such system, but I don’t fully trust them. They already hide the player’s MMR because it’d create a negative outlook on games, so hiding a system that actively punishes good performance may lead to players trolling intentionally.
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Heya, I’m Asad (Irre) Kashif! I’ve been writing about anything and everything since as far back as I can remember. Professionally, I started writing five years ago, working both as a ghostwriter and writing under my own name. As a published author and a council member in Orpheus, my journey in the world of writing has been fulfilling and dynamic.
I still cherish the essays I wrote about my favorite PS2 games, and I’m thrilled to have transformed my passion for game journalism into a career. I’m a theory crafter for Genshin Impact (and now Wuthering Waves) and have a deep love for roguelites and roguelikes. While I prefer indie games for their distinct aesthetic and vibes, I do enjoy triple-A games occasionally. I’ve also been playing League since season 6, and I main Akali! I have a keen interest in discovering and playing more obscure games, as well as researching forgotten titles. Additionally, I am a front-end programmer who dabbles a bit in gamedev occasionally.
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